Ukraine, Russia, and the US are edging closer to a peace deal, but major sticking points remain, including territory, security, and the Zaporizhzhia plant.

Ukraine Peace Deal: Sticking Points and Hurdles Ahead

By Paul Kirby, Europe Digital Editor

The governments of Russia, the US, and Ukraine are moving closer to hammering out a peace deal to end nearly four years of full-scale war. However, as former President Donald Trump notes, “one or two very thorny, very tough issues” stand in the way of a final agreement. Among these are disputes over territory in eastern Ukraine and the control of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant.

Fate of Ukraine’s Industrial Heartland Coveted by Putin

One of the central sticking points in the Ukraine peace deal negotiations is the fate of the Donbas, Ukraine’s industrial core. Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to insist on full Russian control over the entire Donbas region, while President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has floated compromise proposals, such as creating a demilitarized, economically free zone monitored by international forces.

Currently, Russia occupies all of Luhansk and about 75% of Donetsk, but seeks full control including Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. According to Zelensky, “We can’t just withdraw, it’s out of our law. It’s not only the law. People live there, 300,000 people… we can’t lose those people.”

The Kremlin has signaled some openness to alternatives, with envoy Yuri Ushakov recently saying it’s “entirely possible that there won’t be any troops [in Donbas], either Russian or Ukrainian,” while still insisting the territory would become part of Russia.

For a deeper look into Ukraine’s territorial disputes, visit our article on Ukraine-Russia Territory Dispute.

Ukraine’s Huge Nuclear Power Plant in Russian Hands

Another major focus of the peace deal is the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, currently in Russian-occupied Enerhodar. While the plant’s six reactors are in shutdown, its vital cooling systems rely on power supplied by Ukraine. Restarting operations would require major investment, especially the reconstruction of the Kakhovka dam.

The United States has suggested managing the plant as a US-Russian-Ukrainian enterprise, but Ukraine calls that unrealistic. Instead, Kyiv proposes joint management with the US, splitting both management and output. However, Russia’s nuclear agency insists only Russia can guarantee the plant’s safety.

According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Zaporizhzhia is one of the most at-risk nuclear sites in Europe due to ongoing conflict.

Lack of Mutual Trust Despite Positive Rhetoric

Deep mistrust underpins current negotiations. While Trump maintains Putin “wants to see Ukraine succeed,” Zelensky disagrees, saying, “I don’t trust Russians and I don’t trust Putin, and he doesn’t want success for Ukraine.”

Russia, for its part, accuses Ukraine of attacks on its own territory—an assertion Kyiv denies, suspecting a pretext for further Russian strikes.

Other Sticking Points That Could Derail the Deal

Several other issues complicate a potential peace deal:

• Ukraine is demanding security guarantees similar to NATO’s Article 5, while Russia opposes European troops on Ukrainian soil.
• The matter of post-war reconstruction, with Ukrainian financial losses estimated at $800 billion. Western leaders are considering joint investment funds, possibly seizing frozen Russian assets in Europe for this purpose.
• Ukraine aspires to join NATO and the European Union, both conditions Russia opposes, and EU expansion remains controversial among member states.

For more about Ukraine’s military and political situation, read our Ukraine NATO Prospects article.

Could Ukrainians Hold a Vote on the Deal?

President Zelensky contends that no peace deal can be finalized without the support of the Ukrainian people. He cites polls showing wide support for peace but broad opposition to withdrawing from Donbas. Thus, Zelensky proposes a public referendum following a 60-day ceasefire, adding another layer of complexity to the process.

The Kremlin opposes any “pause,” claiming it would merely prolong the conflict—concerns apparently shared by former President Trump. Nonetheless, Zelensky maintains a popular vote is essential for legitimacy.

Outlook: How Close Is a Ukraine Peace Deal?

While negotiations are at a final stage according to Russian state sources and US officials, the main obstacles remain unresolved. Without meaningful compromise on territory, security, and nuclear safety, the prospect of an immediate agreement is slim—yet dialogue continues.

For continuing updates and in-depth coverage, see the original BBC article.