The world in 2025-2026 stands at a crossroads with the Ukraine war, shifting US policy, and China’s ambitions reshaping global power and raising fears of world war.
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Are We Heading Towards World War Three?: Escalating Global Tensions in 2025-2026
By John Simpson, BBC World Affairs Editor
Sensitive content: This article contains graphic descriptions some readers may find upsetting.
2025: Global conflict reaches a critical point
For over six decades I have reported from more than 40 wars. In all that time, no year has felt as threatening as 2025, not simply because of ongoing wars, but because of their unprecedented geopolitical implications.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has issued a dire warning: the war in his country could escalate into a global catastrophe. More concerning is that after so many years as a war correspondent, it’s hard not to agree.
Western governments are constantly on edge, watching Russian tactics involving undersea cables, drone provocations, and cyber attacks that target vital institutions. There is confirmation from official inquiries that Russia’s secret services have orchestrated attacks and assassinations—cases like Sergei Skripal in Salisbury underline claims that these actions are authorized at the highest level, implicating President Putin directly.
Major Wars Defining the Era
Ukraine: Europe’s Existential Crisis
The war in Ukraine continues to devastate, with the UN estimating over 14,000 civilian deaths. Russia faces accusations not only of military aggression but also the forced displacement of children, prompting the International Criminal Court to issue an arrest warrant for Putin. The consequences reach far beyond Ukraine’s borders, threatening Europe’s entire geopolitical order. Read more about how the Ukraine war is affecting global diplomacy in our Ukraine Diplomatic Coverage.
Gaza: Humanitarian Catastrophe
After Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023, sparking Israeli military responses, tens of thousands have been killed in Gaza, according to both Gaza’s health ministry and the UN. The complex ceasefire led by US President Donald Trump has reduced casualties, yet the war’s humanitarian crisis lingers.
Sudan’s Civil War
Meanwhile, Sudan’s vicious civil war between rival military factions has led to over 150,000 deaths and 12 million people displaced. The global community, distracted by multiple crises, finds itself unable to intervene effectively.
America’s New Course and the NATO Dilemma
The strategic landscape shifted dramatically in 2025. For the first time since World War II, a US President signaled a willingness to step back from the defence of Europe. The new US national security strategy paints Europe as facing “civilisational erasure,” a view the Kremlin welcomes.
Despite its vastly superior population and economic strength, Europe remains hesitant to rapidly enhance its own defense capabilities. The specter of US withdrawal leaves Europe vulnerable, as Russia seems poised to exploit any transatlantic rift.
Putin’s Calculated Gambit
President Putin, emboldened by a more inward-looking America, has openly stated Russia is ready for war with Europe “right now” should Europeans escalate further. He insists on mutual respect for Russian interests, but his invasion of Ukraine and allegations of war crimes suggest a deeper aim: restoring Russian regional dominance.
The Risk of Escalation and Nuclear Threats
The risk of the Ukraine war morphing into a broader, possibly nuclear, conflict lingers. President Putin makes chilling threats through his inner circle but personally remains more measured. While NATO’s collective defense and US nuclear capability remain deterrence factors, their guarantees look increasingly uncertain.
Europe’s Strategic Choice
Should Ukraine be forced into a peace deal that cedes territory, the question looms: will those guarantees prevent further Russian aggression, or merely postpone it? Europe may soon bear primary responsibility for Ukraine’s survival if the US fully withdraws support, a burden Europe must prepare for.
China’s Strategy and the Taiwan Question
On another front, China’s President Xi Jinping continues to build military strength and has instructed his military to be prepared for action against Taiwan by 2027, as disclosed by former CIA director William Burns (Source: CIA). China’s leaders closely monitor public opinion, ruling with an emphasis on stability and suppression of dissent since the Tiananmen uprising in 1989—an event I reported from firsthand.
Domestic Insecurity Within Strong Regimes
Despite global power, Chinese leaders remain insecure, knowing their regime rests on unelected foundations. These insecurities play into their foreign policy, fueling a readiness to demonstrate force over Taiwan for both domestic legitimacy and strategic gain.
The Outlook for 2026: What Lies Ahead?
2026 emerges as a fulcrum year. China’s ambitions over Taiwan will become more apparent; Russia may “freeze” the war in Ukraine while retaining the option to restart future aggression. Meanwhile, continued US disengagement risks breaking centuries-old alliances.
World War Three may not conform to old notions of nuclear exchanges, but rather unfold as a series of intense geopolitical, economic, and digital conflicts. This multipolar tension, where autocracy flourishes at democracy’s expense, threatens not only the unity of the West but global peace and stability itself.
Further Reading and Resources
- For more perspectives, visit BBC InDepth.
- Learn more about NATO’s current priorities at NATO’s Official Website.
- Explore related topics in our guide to global security challenges.